Iran’s Role in Syria is Arsonist, Not Firefighter

In a January 17 speech at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson enumerated five U.S. objectives in Syria, one of which was to see “Iranian influence in Syria diminished, their dreams of a northern arch are denied, and Syria’s neighbors are secure from all threats emanating from Syria.”

“Russia must now follow through on the commitment our presidents made last November to find an ultimate solution through the U.N.-led Geneva process,” Tillerson said. “One of the ways Russia can do that is to exert its unique leverage on the Syrian regime, which itself has agreed to participate in the Geneva process. Russia must put new levels of pressure on the regime to not just show up in Geneva but to credibly engage with the U.N.’s efforts and implement agreed outcomes.”

Tillerson’s wishful thinking about the Geneva peace process will be starkly revealed in Sochi on January 29-30, when Russia, Iran and Turkey lead a new round of peace talks called the Syrian Congress of National Dialogue, on the heels of a trilateral Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit in Sochi held on November 22. The Sochi talks are a continuation of the Russia-led Astana peace process, an alternative to the U.N.-backed Geneva peace process endorsed by the U.S. and its European allies as the only acceptable framework for a diplomatic resolution in Syria.  

Washington’s Islamic State-focused Syria policy has inadvertently hobbled its ability to revive the moribund Geneva process, enabling Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime to position themselves, in concert with Turkey, as the shapers of a post-ISIS Syria. Iran has played an especially pernicious role as chief arsonist in Syria, reviving the Assad regime’s fortunes. Iran has furnished Assad with credit lines in 2013, 2014, and 2015 adding up to nearly $6 billion, according to the World Bank. Last week, Israel’s U.N. Ambassador accused Iran of remaking Syria into “the largest military base in the world… to terrorize the entire free world.” He disclosed classified Israeli intelligence which indicated that 82,000 fighters are currently operating in Syria under Iranian authority—comprised of 60,000 Syrians, 9,000 members of Hezbollah, 3,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members, and 10,000 members of Shiite militias from across the region.

Given Iran’s malign role in Syria, its participation in the Astana-led peace process directly undermines American objectives in Syria. The Astana process is viewed by Western powers and Syrian opposition groups as an effort to bolster the Assad regime’s position as fixture in Syria’s political future and to sidestep the U.N.-backed Geneva process. On January 3, 133 Syrian opposition groups sent a letter warning Steffan de Mistura, the U.N.’s special envoy for Syria, against participating or otherwise legitimizing the Sochi talks, stating that congress, “would not allow meaningful representation and participation for all Syrians, and poses a serious threat to the potential for any viable peace process in Syria. … The only process that is credible is the U.N.-led process.” Syria’s main Kurdish groups never even received a final invite to Sochi and announced that they would not even attend given the Turkish assault on Afrin.

To date, the primary success of the Astana process begun in January 2017 was the creation of four de-escalation zones in rebel-held territory. However, the Assad regime has cynically kept up siege and bombardment tactics against rebel fighters and civilians in the de-escalation zones, highlighting the bad faith with which Assad and his Iranian patrons have approached the peace process. Rather than adhering to principles laid out in the Geneva process, which called for a transitional government and eventual post-Assad leadership, the Russians, Iranians, and Assad regime are using the parallel Astana process to consolidate Assad’s battlefield gains, perpetuate his rule, and assure that Assad never faces justice for his crimes against the Syrian people. Tellingly, Assad has once again carried out chlorine gas attacks against his own people, with Russia providing diplomatic cover, within days of the Sochi talks.

Iran’s Syrian intervention in Syria has thus far paid off, as Assad’s survival seems assured while his weakened position both domestically and within the international community all but guarantees he will remain a subservient Iranian client, Iran will win lucrative reconstruction contracts and expand its supply lines to its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran will continue to use upcoming Sochi talks to further consolidate Assad’s rule, not to work toward helping Syria transition to post-Assad governance as called for under the Geneva process. As the chief arsonist in Syria, Iran is not about to abandon its own interests to serve as firefighter.

Jordan Steckler is a research analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).