Leaked U.S. Intelligence Suggests Israel Is Preparing To Strike Iran

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Leaked U.S. Intelligence Suggests Israel Is Preparing To Strike Iran | The New York Times  

The leak of a pair of highly classified U.S. intelligence documents describing recent satellite images of Israeli military preparations for a potential strike on Iran offers a window into the intense American concerns about Israel’s plans. It also has U.S. officials working to understand the size of the improper disclosure. The two documents were prepared in recent days by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for analyzing images and information collected by American spy satellites. They began circulating on Friday on the Telegram app and were being discussed by largely pro-Iran accounts. The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days.  

Iran Complains To UN Nuclear Watchdog About Israeli Threats To Its Atomic Sites, Spokesman Says | Reuters 

Iran has written to the U.N. nuclear watchdog to complain about Israeli threats to strike its atomic energy sites, its foreign ministry spokesman said at a weekly news conference on Monday. Israel has vowed to attack Iran in retaliation for a volley of Iranian missiles on Oct. 1, stirring widespread speculation that Iranian nuclear sites could be among the targets. "Threats to attack nuclear sites are against U.N. resolutions.... and are condemned ... We have sent a letter about it to ... the U.N. nuclear watchdog," ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told the televised news conference. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel would listen to key ally the United States regarding a response to Iran's missile attack but would decide its actions according to its own national interest.  

US Envoy To Hold Ceasefire Talks In Lebanon; Israel Targets Hezbollah’s Finances | Reuters 

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein held talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut on Monday on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah after Israel struck branches across Lebanon of a financial institution linked to the group. Diplomacy has failed to cool down Israel's raging conflicts with its two most dangerous and heavily armed regional militia foes - Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian Gaza Strip - which are grinding into a second year. Washington is hoping for a new push for peace in the Middle East following Israel's killing last week of Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas and architect of the attacks on Israeli towns last year that precipitated Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip. U.S. officials are seeking to broker a truce in Lebanon, where Israel launched a ground campaign over the past month.  

UANI IN THE NEWS 

Hacking Or Sabotage? US Probes 'Top Secret' Leak Of Israel's Plan On Iran | Iran International 

As Washington investigates a top-secret document leak regarding Israel's retaliation plans to Iran’s recent aerial attack, questions have emerged over whether it was the result of a security breach or an Iran-backed cyberattack... Jason Brodsky, head of policy research at United Against Nuclear Iran, wrote on X that the documents, which had been US surveillance of Israeli military activity in preparation for the retaliation, “risks eroding trust between the US and Israel at a sensitive moment”, the documents “of high value to Tehran as it plans a defense”.  

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS 

Iran's Currency Plunge Signals Deeper Trouble For Struggling Economy | Iran International 

Iran’s currency, the rial, has plunged near historic lows as the threat of direct confrontation with Israel looms, raising concerns about soaring inflation and adding pressure on the government to manage its economic challenges. On Thursday, October 17, the rial briefly traded at 640,000 per US dollar, down from 590,000 in August, before Israel began its punishing attacks on Iran’s proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and eventually killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. This led to an Iranian retaliation with ballistic missiles on October 1. Since then, Iran has been expecting a retaliatory strike by Israel. With inflation hovering around 40% over the past five years, the government has little room to maneuver on economic issues, compounded by a massive budget deficit. US sanctions imposed in 2018 have significantly cut Iran's oil export revenues, which typically account for about half of the government’s budget.  

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS 

Prosecutors In Iran Target A Newspaper Over Its Cartoon Mocking Internet Restrictions | Associated Press 

An Iranian newspaper implying that the public needed to have the patience of the Biblical figure Job in waiting for President Masoud Pezeshkian to lift restrictions on the internet now faces potential criminal charges. The reported case against the pro-reform newspaper Ham Mihan represents one of the first media freedom issues to be faced under Pezeshkian, himself a reformist who has promised to ease a police crackdown on women wearing the hijab and improve relations with the West. 

Iranian Medical Students Protest As Tuition Triples | Iran International 

Iranian medical students are protesting a sudden tuition hike at Islamic Azad University taking fees to triple the price while the country endures an economic crisis.  The students in faculties of medicine, dentistry, pharmaceuticals and veterinary science, already grappling with inflation and rising costs of living, took to the streets in protest of the hike which is usually closer to 10-25% annually.  "Someone help us! The 300 million rial (about $500) tuition for medical science programs has suddenly tripled, and now we are stuck with no way forward or back," one medical student at a protest rally on Saturday said, summing up the frustration felt by many. 

 U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS 

US Investigates Leak On Intelligence About Israel's Iran Attack Plans | Reuters 

The United States is investigating the leak of a pair of highly classified intelligence documents describing Israel's preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran, House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Sunday. The documents appear to have been prepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, describing U.S. interpretations of Israeli Air Force and Navy planning based on satellite imagery from Oct. 15-16.  

Biden Sees Opportunity To Potentially End Israel-Iran Fighting ‘For A While’ | Reuters 

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday there was an opportunity to deal with Israel and Iran in a way that potentially ends their conflict in the Middle East for a while. Speaking to reporters at the end of a visit to Berlin, Biden also said he has an understanding of how and when Israel was going to retaliate against missile attacks by Iran. He declined to elaborate. Tensions have been high in the region with Israel planning a response to the Oct. 1 missile attack carried out by Tehran. "There's an opportunity in my view and my colleagues agree that we can probably deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a while. That ends the conflict, in other words, that stops the back and forth," Biden said.  

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS 

Over 600 Missions: Israel Police Arrests Seven Jewish Suspects For Spying For Iran | The Jerusalem Post 

Seven Israelis, some of them relatives, were arrested on suspicion of espionage for Iran, Israel Police announced on Monday. Charges, expected by the end of the week, are anticipated to include assisting the enemy during wartime. The seven suspects, Jewish Israelis of Azeri origin from Haifa and Haifa’s bayside suburbs, have been in custody for about 35 days. Prosecutors allege they completed some 600 missions for Iran, including gathering intelligence on sensitive military and infrastructure sites and identifying potential human targets for Iran. Notable sites include Ramat David Airbase, Nevatim Airbase, and Glilot, among others.  

US Says THAAD Anti-Missile System Is ‘In Place’ In Israel | Reuters 

The U.S. military has rushed its advanced anti-missile system to Israel and it is now "in place", Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. THAAD, or the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, is a critical part of the U.S. military's layered air defense systems and adds to Israel's already formidable anti-missile defenses. "The THAAD system is in place," Austin said, speaking to reporters before his arrival in Ukraine on Monday. He declined to say whether it was operational, but added: "We have the ability to put it into operation very quickly and we're on pace with our expectations."  

ECONOMIC WARFARE 

Israel Strikes Hezbollah-Affiliated Financial Branches Across Lebanon | The New York Times 

The Israeli military conducted a wave of airstrikes across Lebanon on Sunday, targeting branches of Al-Qard al-Hasan, a financial association associated with the militant group Hezbollah. The organization was placed under U.S. sanctions in 2007 and has been accused by American, Israeli, Saudi Arabian and other officials of operating as Hezbollah’s de facto banking arm. Inside Lebanon, where Hezbollah also functions as a political organization and provides a range of social services, Al-Qard al-Hasan is designated a non-governmental organization and is viewed as a Hezbollah-affiliated charity.  

CONGRESS & IRAN 

Speaker Johnson Says Now Is The Time For US, Israel To Go After Iran: 'Head Of The Snake' | Fox News 

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., says the U.S. should assist Israel with a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran as tensions continue to rise in the Middle East. Johnson made the comment during a Sunday morning appearance on CNN's "State of the Union" with host Jake Tapper. The speaker told Tapper that Iran is the "head of the snake," and fighting proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas will not get the job done. "We're on a precipice, I think, Jake, of a new era of security and freedom for Israel. And I think we're very close, I hope, I pray, to ending that conflict there. But we cannot equivocate. We can't appease Iran," Johnson said.  

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN 

Ministers Don’t Give PM, Gallant Authority To Decide On Iran Strike Timing, Hear Anti-UNRWA Bill Could Jeopardize UN Membership | The Times Of Israel 

The six-hour security cabinet last night did not give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant the authority to decide on the timing of a strike on Iran, as had been expected, according to Yedioth Ahronot. The two want to give the green light for Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack at the last minute, as was the case in the strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, according to the outlet. According to Yedioth, ministers expressed frustration at the ostensibly “weak response” to the drone attack on Netanyahu’s house last week, which they believe Iran approved. Members of the security services responded that they only execute the directives of the political echelon.  

US Pushes For Lebanon Ceasefire As Iran And Israel Hold Firm On Tough Stance | Iran International 

As a senior US diplomat visits Beirut on Monday to discuss the potential for a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, Iranian state media continues to tout the "victorious" attacks carried out by Tehran-backed militias. US envoy Amos Hochstein will visit Beirut on Monday for discussions with Lebanese officials regarding conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, according to two sources in Lebanon, Reuters reported. The talks come as Israel intensified its air campaign against Hezbollah, targeting several of the group's assets overnight.  

A Drone Targets The Israeli Prime Minister's House During New Barrages With Hezbollah | NPR
Israel's government said a drone targeted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s house Saturday, with no casualties, as fighting with Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Gaza-based Hamas showed no pause after the killing of the Hamas mastermind of last year’s Oct. 7 attack. Israel's military said dozens of projectiles were launched from Lebanon a day after Hezbollah announced a new phase in fighting. Netanyahu’s office said the drone targeted his house in the Mediterranean coastal town of Caesarea. Neither he nor his wife was there. It wasn't clear if the house was hit. “The proxies of Iran who today tried to assassinate me and my wife made a bitter mistake,” Netanyahu said.  

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN 

Persian Gulf Islands Outrage Showcases Rare Iranian Unity | Iran International 

joint statement by the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) urging Iran to relinquish control of three islands in the Persian Gulf has sparked anger in Iran spanning the country's entrenched political divides. The naming and sovereignty of the body of water and its islands are a deep-felt issue inside Iran and among its diaspora and stands as one of the few political themes uniting the Iranian people. The EU-GCC joint statement on Wednesday described three Iranian-controlled Persian Gulf islands disputed between the Islamic Republic and the United Arab Emirates as "occupied" and urged Iran to relinquish control.  

IRAQ & IRAN 

Iraq Suspends License Of Saudi-Owned Television Channel, MBC Media Group | The New York Times 

Iraqi regulators have suspended the license of a Saudi-owned television channel and are taking steps to terminate its right to operate in Iraq after the channel aired a report describing former leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds Force as “faces of terrorism.” The suspension of the channel, MBC Media Group, was announced by the Iraqi Communication and Media Commission on Saturday, less than 24 hours after supporters of the Iranian linked armed groups stormed the channel’s offices in Baghdad, filming themselves as they vandalized equipment and smashed computers.  

AFGHANISTAN & IRAN 

Iran Starts Building Walls Along Eastern Borders | News.az 

Iran has initiated the construction of walls along its eastern borders to mitigate security threats, according to a commander of the Islamic Republic’s Border Guard Police. Brigadier General Ahmad Ali Goudarzi said that the initiative aims to prevent the smuggling of fuel, goods, and particularly drugs, adding that it also seeks to address illegal immigration, News.Az  reports, citing Iranian media. According to the Iranian commander, the priority of this project is securing the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan.  

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS 

Iran Hosts Joint Naval Drills With Russia And Oman In Indian Ocean, State Media Reports | Reuters 

Naval drills hosted by Iran with the participation of Russia and Oman and observed by nine other countries began in the Indian Ocean on Saturday, Iran's state TV said. The exercises, dubbed "IMEX 2024", are aimed at boosting "collective security in the region, expand multilateral cooperation, and display the goodwill and capabilities to safeguard peace, friendship and maritime security", the English-language Press TV said. Participants would practice tactics to ensure international maritime trade security, protect maritime routes, enhance humanitarian measures and exchange information on rescue and relief operations, it said. The exercises coincide with heightened tensions in the region as Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza rages and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels retaliate by launching attacks on ships in the Red Sea.