Nasrallah's False Narrative of Success

Hezbollah’s failed attempt to hit significant military targets in central Israel as a response to Israel’s targeted killing of Fuad Shukr, one of the organization’s top military commanders, opens a window that allows a peek into its thinking.

By now, Hezbollah, its affiliated media outlets in Lebanon, and its partners in the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” are all deeply invested in promoting a false narrative regarding the events.  Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, himself publicly claimed that his organization was able to hit military targets near Tel Aviv and that Israel is hiding the real damage. The narratives go further and stress that the massive preemptive Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah missile launchers failed and did not have any influence on the organization’s retaliation plan. 

This distorted version of the reality is being ridiculed by the Arab world as many do not agree with the false narrative and mock the fact that damage was mainly done to civilian infrastructures such as chicken coops along the border.

Meme circulating on social media mocking Hezbollah’s false narrative 

The fact that terror organizations lie and publish false propaganda to promote their goals is nothing new. Over the past month, we have witnessed Hamas’s massive fake news campaign over events in Gaza, the Houthis' false claims regarding their operational successes in the Red Sea, and other examples. 

Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s case holds significant importance, as for years, one of Nasrallah’s main assets was his credibility and the image he created as a “man of his word.” The fact that Nasrallah is willing to promote such a distorted version of events indicates the level of stress and the strategic deadlock Hezbollah is in. 

The main element of this dynamic is that the organization maneuvered itself into a position over which it has limited control. Hezbollah initiated the attacks against northern Israel a day after Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, as an act of support. Over the past few months, Nasrallah insisted on a linkage between the events in Gaza and Lebanon. By doing so, Nasrallah practically delegated control over the events in Lebanon to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and lost his power over the ability to stop the fighting against Israel without being seen as betraying Hamas. 

Being trapped in this position, Hezbollah is “forced” to continue the daily exchange of fire with Israel, even at the steadily rising risk of an all-out war, a scenario that Hezbollah tries to avoid. At the same time, as the Israeli leadership gets more and more frustrated by the unstable situation along the border with Lebanon, it further escalates its military campaign targeting Hezbollah military assets. Once again, Nasrallah finds himself “forced” to retaliate against acts initiated by a side he has no control over and is faced with the risk of an all-out war. 

Being caught in this uncontrolled spiraling dynamic of escalation leads Nasrallah to manipulate and distort reality in a way that will enable him to have a certain level of control over the event.  Hezbollah’s attempt to deny the fact that it was one of its rockets that caused the death of 12 children in Majdal Shams, was most likely done to delegitimize an Israeli retaliation to the tragic event. It is doubtful if many in Lebanon were convinced by the organization’s version of the incident. 

Another recent example of Hezbollah’s attempt to create a false narrative to protect the organization's image is the claim that Israeli pinpoint attacks on ammunition storehouses embedded in civilian surroundings are hitting civilian sites. Images of massive secondary explosions spread on social media that quickly rebuffed those claims and exposed Hezbollah’s falsified propaganda.

The loss of Nasrallah's credibility, alongside the high price Lebanon’s civilian population pays due to the ongoing fighting and the rising political and social criticism over Hezbollah’s unilateral decision to support Hamas by attacking Israel, are accumulated damages caused to Hezbollah and its leader over the past month. Unfortunately, it appears that those damages, which are added to the loss of hundreds of Hezbollah’s members and significant military assets, are not enough to cause Nasrallah to change his position regarding the organization’s commitment to continue the fighting. 

Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon.  He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel’s Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.