UANI Analysis of Recent Administration Remarks on Iran, the JPA, and Sanctions

2015 STATE OF THE UNION REMARKS

"HALTED PROGRESS" ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

"Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran, where, for the first time in a decade, we've halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material."

The JPA has not halted progress on Iran's nuclear program. Throughout the JPA's duration, Iran has continued to conduct extensive research and development related to its nuclear program including on advanced centrifuges "so it can enrich better and faster." Iran has not dismantled even a single centrifuge and President Rouhani just announced that Iran has started building two new nuclear power plants.

INTERNATIONAL UNITY WILL BE BROKEN

"...new sanctions passed by this Congress, at this moment in time, will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails--alienating America from its allies... It doesn't make sense."

Actually, international unity on isolating Iran has already been weakened since the JPA took effect. State-sanctioned trade delegations from EU countries-including Austria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany and Italy-have all journeyed to Tehran for talks with Iranian counterparts, paving the way for restoring trade relations.

This argument also makes two related, false assumptions-that only the U.S. has a vital interest in denying Iran nuclear weapons capability, and that, therefore, other countries will try to cheat on sanctions. In reality, the international sanctions architecture has been carefully built and maintained by a coalition of nations that understand the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran.

"WAR AS A LAST RESORT"

"...new sanctions passed by this Congress, at this moment in time, will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails... The American people expect us to only go to war as a last resort, and I intend to stay true to that wisdom."

It appears the Administration is returning to the warmonger smears it wisely chose to forgo over the better part of this past year. In fact, President Obama himself, in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, promoted sanctions as a non-violent policy tool used to avoid war. And sanctions on Iran continue to fulfill that peaceful role as the regime advances its nuclear program, sponsors terrorism, threatens the U.S. with destruction, and seeks regional hegemony.

TRIGGERED SANCTIONS WOULD VIOLATE THE JPA

"Now, you'll hear arguments-well, these technically aren't new sanctions, they're simply laws putting in place the possibility of additional sanctions.  I assure that is not how Iran would interpret it or our partners would interpret it."

The Administration has needlessly conceded to the Iranian regime's position. Proposed sanctions legislation is a diplomatic insurance policy which would trigger sanctions only if Iran failed to reach an agreement by the set deadline. Enacting such legislation would not automatically impose new sanctions on Iran. Therefore, such legislation would not violate the JPA.

WE JUST NEED A LITTLE MORE TIME...

"On Iran, we remain absolutely committed to ensuring that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon.  The best way to achieve that now is to create the space for negotiations to succeed."

For years, the Administration has pushed against the passage of new sanctions in order to create so-called space for negotiations to succeed. Unfortunately, the Administration, unlike Congress, continues to underestimate the Iranian regime's recalcitrance and the pressure needed to drive Tehran to negotiate in good faith and abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. In the latest example of this, Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, has implored Congress "for a few more months to fully test diplomacy" while at the same time saying that a third extension of the JPA may be necessary because "We might want a little more time." The Administration demands maximum flexibility without the corresponding accountability of tangible results.

I'LL BE FIRST TO SUPPORT SANCTIONS

"Now, if Iran ends up ultimately not being able to say yes... I will be the first one to come to Congress and say we need to tighten the screws."

At the time the JPA was signed, Obama said, "if Iran does not fully meet its commitments during this six-month phase, we will turn off the relief and ratchet up the pressure." Those six months have now extended to more than a year. And rewind to last year's SOTU, when Obama said the very same thing: "If Iran's leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions." But Iran's leaders have not seized the opportunity, and still the President opposes new sanctions. Such promises are no longer convincing-particularly to the Iranians.

YOU'RE ONLY SUPPORTING SANCTIONS FOR POLITICAL GAIN

"The president said he understood the pressures that senators face from donors and others, but he urged the lawmakers to take the long view rather than make a move for short-term political gain. ...   [Democratic Sen.] Menendez, who was seated at a table in front of the podium, stood up and said he took 'personal offense.'"

New Iran sanctions make long-term sense for U.S. national security because, as in the past, sanctions increase U.S. leverage to prevent a nuclear Iran. That's why there is widespread, bipartisan Congressional support for new sanctions. The Administration should stop questioning the motives and sincerity of sanctions supporters, change course, and work with Congress to advance new sanctions.

WE COULD PASS NEW SANCTIONS IN 24 HOURS

"And if we can't, we can put sanction[s] - additional sanctions on in 24 hours."

-          Deputy State Dept. Spokesperson Marie Harf (1/13/2015)

Sanctions take time. Time to negotiate their provisions among various senators and congressmen, between the House and Senate, and between Congress and the administration. Time for the Executive Branch bureaucracy to draft and institute regulations to implement sanctions. Time for the administration to encourage foreign governments to abide by such sanctions. Robust sanctions take months and months-not 24 hours-to enact and implement. Unfortunately, instead of working with Congress to pave the way for new sanctions, the administration is obstructing progress on such sanctions. If the Administration waits until the JPA expires or falls apart to act on sanctions, it could take many more months to make new sanctions a reality.

IRAN'S ECONOMY IS BEING PRESSURED

"Some said that the modest sanctions relief would provide the ability to see a collapse in the sanctions regime, predicted that companies would flood back into Iran... But they haven't.  They haven't."

-          Vice President Biden (12/7/2014)

Sanctions relief under the JPA has enabled Iran to return to positive economic growth after two years of recession, leading President Rouhani to proclaim that the sanctions are "unraveling." This has given Iranian officials the confidence to believe they can walk away from negotiations without much harm.

MEASURING SUCCESS: IRAN HAS ABIDED BY THE JPA

"Many were quick to say that the Joint Plan of Action would be violated; it wouldn't hold up, it would be shredded. Many said that Iran would not hold up its end of the bargain. ... But guess what? The interim agreement wasn't violated."

-          Secretary of State John Kerry (11/24/2014)

This has been a routine straw man employed by the Administration. The primary concern of critics was not that Iran wouldn't abide by the JPA, but that the JPA did not demand enough of Iran. For example, over the course of the more than year-long JPA, Iran has not dismantled a single centrifuge and still retains a stockpile of uranium sufficient to build several nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Iran continues to routinely violate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran.