TOP STORIES
Biden, Netanyahu Speak, Israel Vows Lethal Retaliation Against Iran | Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a call on Wednesday amid tensions with Iran, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised an Israeli strike against Iran will be "lethal, precise and surprising." The 30-minute call was the first known chat for Biden and Netanyahu since August and coincides with a sharp escalation of Israel's conflict with Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, but with no sign of an imminent ceasefire to end the conflict with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza. The call was "direct and very productive," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters, while acknowledging the two leaders have disagreements and are open about them.
Israel’s defense minister warned on Wednesday that his country’s retaliation for a recent Iranian missile attack will be “lethal” and “surprising,” while the Israeli military pushed ahead with a large-scale operation in northern Gaza and a ground offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah militants. On the diplomatic front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden held their first call in seven weeks, with a White House press secretary saying the call included discussions on Israel’s deliberations over how it will respond to Iran’s attack. The continuing cycle of destruction and death in Gaza, unleashed by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, comes as Israel expands a weeklong ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and considers a major retaliatory strike on Iran following Iran’s Oct. 1 missile barrage.
China’s Oil Refiners Get Iranian Offers At Narrower Discounts | Bloomberg
Private oil refiners in China say Iranian sellers are seeking to raise their prices by offering narrower discounts, at a time of elevated tensions in the Middle East that have global investors on edge. So-called teapots received offers for Iranian Light and Iranian Heavy crudes at $1-a-barrel more than in previous months, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak publicly. At present, sellers and buyers are at a standoff. Refiners in China are a vital outlet for Iranian flows as US sanctions have shrunk the pool of purchasers. That’s created a symbiotic relationship between the Chinese importers — who want access to discounted oil to maintain their profits — and sellers, who have few alternative takers. It’s unclear if the dispute would affect the continuation of flows between the two nations.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Unpacking Iran’s Efforts To Meddle In The U.S. Election | The Dispatch
[…] “The Iranians have gotten more brazen of late,” Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, told TMD. “These cases are handled as a law enforcement matter, where you’ll see an indictment, a few symbolic sanctions, and a strongly worded press statement from a U.S. official. But there is never any policy response for these kinds of crimes to hold the Islamic Republic accountable.” Brodsky argued that assassination plots, successful or not, warrant a strong response that could include military action. He said the plot to kill Trump represents an “act of war” and “a very big interference in our democracy.”
How Iran Sells Oil To China And Gets Around Sanctions? | DW News
What is the "shadow fleet" that Iran uses to sell oil to China, its loyal customer? And how does this fleet work to help Iran circumvent Western sanctions? Interview with UANI Chief of Staff Claire Jungman.
‘Tehran Now Has Enough Enriched Uranium To Make Two To Five Nuclear Weapons” | Panorama.It
Panorama.it interviewed Daniel Roth, research director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). After more than a dozen breaches of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) since July 2019, Tehran now has enough enriched uranium to build two of the five nuclear weapons. Typically, the process of weaponization – turning material into a warhead – would take an additional several months to a year. However, the IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, has very limited visibility into Iran’s nuclear program after the regime decided to scale back cooperation. Its missiles are inherently capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction.
After Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel last Tuesday, in response to the killings of the leaders of the pro-Iranian proxy groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli ground operations against the Lebanese militant group in southern Lebanon, one of the biggest questions - but not exactly for a million dollars - that's how Israel will respond to that. […] There are, in fact, a lot of similarities between Russian and Iranian oil exports - both countries are under Western sanctions, they largely rely on China, among others, they have their own 'shadow fleets', ships that illegally transport their oil and thus bypass sanctions , and both give generous discounts to their key customers. According to the non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran, Iran's shadow fleet consists of at least 383 ships.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Prices Edge Up On US Storm And Israel-Iran Fears | Reuters
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, underpinned by a spike in fuel demand as a major storm barrelled into Florida, with Middle East supply risks also in focus. Brent crude futures rose 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $77.16 a barrel by 0847 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $73.85. In the United States, the world's largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida, where about a quarter of fuel stations sold out of gasoline, helping to support crude prices.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday held their first call in seven weeks, a conversation that comes as Israel expands its ground incursion into Lebanon and considers how to respond to Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack. Vice President Kamala Harris also joined the 30-minute call, according to the White House. “It was direct, it was productive,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, who added that the leaders discussed a long list of issues on the call, including Israel’s deliberations on how it will respond to Iran.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Infighting In Iran Escalates Over Global Financial Compliance | Iran International
Iran's political elite is divided over the nation's refusal to comply with international financial regulations under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which has placed the country on its blacklist. The hardline faction has ramped up their opposition to the international anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing body after eight years of its appeals for compliance. The infighting within the government comes at a time when Iran’s economy is grappling with sanctions, inflation, and widespread public dissatisfaction, posing challenges for new President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration. The FATF demands compliance with global rule on money laundering and terrorism financing among other requirements.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israeli Strike Kills 5 Rescue Workers In South Lebanon, Lebanese Authorities Say | Reuters
An Israeli strike killed five emergency workers in southern Lebanon, the health ministry said on Thursday, as Israel pressed its major offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah and warned Lebanese civilians in the south not to return home. Lebanon's caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said contacts were under way between the United States and France with the aim of reviving a ceasefire, an apparent reference to diplomatic efforts to clinch a truce which Israel rejected last month. There was no immediate comment from Washington or Paris.
Israeli Airstrikes In Syria Target Iranian-Linked Sites | Iran International
Israeli airstrikes hit multiple locations in western Syria early on Thursday, targeting sites associated with Iranian interests, according to Syrian media and regional reports. Among the targets was a car manufacturing plant in the industrial town of Hisyah, 30 kilometers south of Homs, where Israeli forces caused material damage, as reported by Syria's state news agency, SANA.
CHINA & IRAN
China is deeply concerned over the turmoil in the Middle East and is calling for a "major country" with influence to play its due role to prevent a spillover of the crisis, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday, as Israel, with support or tolerance from the US, intends to retaliate significantly against Iran. This has brought increasing concern among the international community that a loss of control over the situation could spiral into an all-out war in the Middle East.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Saudi Arabia Loses Bid For A Seat On UN's Premier Human Rights Body | Washington Post
Saudi Arabia was defeated for a seat in the U.N.’s premier human rights body Wednesday after a campaign by rights groups that accused the Saudis of serious rights violations. The 193-member General Assembly elected 18 new members to serve on the 47-nation Human Rights Council, which allocates seats to regional groups to ensure geographical representation.
Iran Seeks Gulf Political Support Ahead Of Israel's Retaliation | The National
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday that Tehran is seeking the support of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other nations in the Middle East to de-escalate tensions ahead of a vowed Israeli retaliation on his country, which could further exacerbate the conflict in the region. Mr. Araghchi visited Riyadh and Doha as part of a regional tour aimed at “defending” Iran's position regarding the war with Israel, according to diplomatic sources who spoke to The National on the condition of anonymity. The sources added that part of his trip is aimed at seeking "political support" from key Gulf and Arab countries to "reach a ceasefire in Gaza and stop the war in Lebanon and prevent a wider war in the region".
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
More Airlines Fly Over Afghanistan In Last Week As Middle East Tensions Rise | Reuters
Airlines have diverted more flights over Afghanistan over the past week to avoid Iranian airspace, data shows, adding to journey times and fuel costs in the latest disruption for routes between Asia and Europe as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Flights over Afghanistan were already growing in recent months, but expectations of an Israeli response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel last week have furthered that trend, data from flight tracker FlightRadar24 shows.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Air France Says Jet Flew Over Iraq As Iranian Missiles Descended On Israel | CNN
Air France has opened an investigation into how a jet flying from Paris to Dubai went over Iraq as Iranian missiles fired at Israel crossed the same airspace, the airline said Wednesday. Iran launched dozens of missiles towards Israel on October 1 in what it said was a response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others in Lebanon. The missiles had to pass through Iraq’s airspace to reach Israel.