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Israel has assured the Biden administration that a planned retaliatory attack on Iran won’t target nuclear and oil facilities, according to U.S. officials, a promise sought by the White House to head off further Middle East escalation and to avoid a potential oil-price increase. The pledges came in a call between President Biden and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, as well as in conversations in recent days between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, the officials said. Israel has suggested it would aim for military or intelligence targets, the officials said, but has stopped short of providing the U.S. a list of specific targets. The planned attack is a response to Iran firing 180 missiles at Israel on Oct. 1 after an Israeli airstrike that killed Lebanese militia Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
US Warns Iran To Stop Plotting Against Trump, Says US Official | Reuters
The United States has warned the Iranian government to stop all plotting against Republican Donald Trump and said that Washington would view any attempt on his life as an act of war, a U.S. official said on Monday. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said U.S. President Joe Biden has been briefed regularly on the threats and directed his team to address Iranian plots against Americans. At Biden's direction, top U.S. officials have sent messages to the highest levels of the Iranian government warning Tehran to cease all plotting against Trump and former U.S. officials, the official said. The Iranians have been told that Washington would view it as an act of war if any attempt was carried out against Trump's life, the official said. Iran has denied interfering in U.S. affairs. Tehran, in turn, says Washington has interfered in its affairs for decades, citing events ranging from a 1953 coup against a prime minister to the 2020 killing of its military commander in a U.S. drone strike.
Iran Condemns EU, UK Sanctions On Tehran, Denies Providing Ballistic Missiles To Russia | Reuters
Iran condemned new EU and British sanctions on Tehran and denied providing ballistic missiles to Russia, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, said in a post on X on Tuesday. The European Union agreed on Monday to impose sanctions on seven people and seven organisations, including airline Iran Air, for their links to Iranian transfers of ballistic missiles to Russia. The listings also include Saha Airlines and Mahan Air and Iran's Deputy Defence Minister Seyed Hamzeh Ghalandari. At the same time, Britain added nine new designations under its Iran sanctions regime. Last month, the United States, citing intelligence it said had been shared with allies, said Russia had received ballistic missiles from Iran for its war in Ukraine. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson denied on Tuesday his country provided ballistic missiles to Russia.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran’s illicit oil revenue has swelled to nearly $200 billion under the Biden-Harris administration, according to the latest government figures and expert estimates, a windfall driven by the perennially lax enforcement of U.S. sanctions that has helped Tehran’s hardline regime obtain the cash needed to fund a brutal year-long war on Israel... Iran is on pace for another big year in 2024, exporting more than $34 billion in oil through October, according to figures compiled by United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI), an advocacy group that monitors Tehran's global oil shipments through a comprehensive tanker tracker.
Two LPG carriers conducting a cargo transshipment operation off the coast of Bangladesh went up in flames on Sunday. The fires were eventually extinguished by Bangladesh’s navy and coast guard, and although a major disaster has been narrowly averted, the incident has raised yet again the lack of safety standards on board ships that have been accused of transporting sanctioned oil and gas. […] The Captain Nikolas, like other ships under Aspero’s management, has been linked to transporting sanctioned Iranian LPG by United Against Nuclear Iran, a Washington lobby group that tracks US-sanctioned oil shipments from Iran.
LPG Tankers Explode, One Linked to Iranian Gas Smuggling | gCaptain
In a dramatic scene off the coast of Bangladesh, two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers erupted in flames during a cargo transshipment operation on Sunday. Fortunately, injuries were averted thanks to quick intervention by the Bangladesh Navy and Coast Guard, but the incident has once again shined a spotlight on the murky safety and operational standards of vessels involved in transporting sanctioned oil and gas... The Captain Nikolas, a Cook Islands-flagged vessel owned by Panama-registered Folegandros Maritime, is managed by Aspero Ship Management. Operating from the UAE, Aspero faces accusations from the American watchdog group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) of transporting sanctioned Iranian LPG, which the company denies.
Iran’s Oil Revenue Skyrockets to $41B Under Biden | Jewish Breaking News
When former President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, critics decried the move as unnecessarily hawkish. Yet, an explosive new report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tells a compelling story... Foreign economic policy analysts attribute the discrepancy to several factors. Primarily, Iran incurs substantial costs in circumventing US sanctions, including offering significant discounts to smugglers in China. Earlier this year, the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) disclosed satellite evidence showing two vessels, HECATE and ELVA, offloading massive cargoes of Iranian crude at China’s Dongjiakou port. Furthermore, a portion of Iran’s fuel oil exports is bartered for gasoline due to domestic shortages, while some oil is provided to Syria free of charge.
The US has announced its most aggressive round of Iran sanctions in years, targeting 39 tankers and companies in response to Iran’s missile barrage on Israel. The sanctions are expected to ‘delay deliveries and add tremendous costs to Iran’, according to US monitoring group United Against Nuclear Iran... The 23 vessels sanctioned today were “notorious offenders, transporting millions of barrels of oil for Iran”, said Claire Jungman, chief of staff at US monitoring group United Against Nuclear Iran. “We expect these sanctions to delay deliveries and add tremendous costs to Iran.”
The last time President Joe Biden helped Israel repel an Iranian missile onslaught, he advised Benjamin Netanyahu against retaliation, telling the prime minister to “take the win.”... Jason Brodsky, the policy director at the United Against Nuclear Iran advocacy group, said Israel and the United States were at different points on what he called the “risk clock.” “Israel right now is in a very risk-ready mood but the U.S. is in a very risk-averse move,” he said. “Israel is risk-ready because of the success it’s had in decapitating Hezbollah, and it senses some momentum right now in its operations, and the U.S. is risk-averse because we’re on the verge of a presidential election.”
An explosive report from the Iranian dissident group the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) alleges that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s domestic airline, Iran Air, is providing support to the U.S. designated terror organization Hezbollah...Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, told Fox News Digital that "Iran Air has a history of enabling procurement of Western products, particularly dual-use goods, for use by the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] IRGC and Iran’s Defense Ministry, through Europe to Iran routes." Brodsky explained that Iran Air gets away with these transfers by using "carry-on luggage in European airport stopovers which do not require another security check." Brodsky said that "Iran purposely uses such civilian flights as a shield to avoid kinetic targeting by its adversaries."
US Slaps Sanctions On Iran’s ‘Ghost Fleet’ Oil-Tanker Network | Jewish News Syndicate
The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Friday that it imposed sanctions on Iran’s “ghost fleet” of tankers and shipping companies that the Islamic Republic uses to sell oil... Nearly all of the vessels sanctioned by the Treasury on Friday are included in a database of 459 Iranian ghost fleet tankers maintained by United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that advocates tougher U.S. measures against the regime. Jason Brodsky, UANI’s policy director, argued that Friday’s sanctions don’t do enough to punish Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel. “I remember when Jake Sullivan promised ‘severe consequences’ for Iran’s regime,” Brodsky wrote. “While welcome and overdue, sanctions are easy for U.S. policymakers to impose. Combining sanctions with kinetic action and diplomatic pressure is what’s needed.”
Mystery Fire In Tehran May Be Linked To Nuclear Capabilities | Iran International
fire that broke out in the Shadabad iron market in Tehran on Saturday was allegedly at a location linked to Iran’s nuclear industry, according to Israeli intelligence research center Intelli Times... Jason Brodsky, head of policy at United Against Nuclear Iran, said “there is a history of sabotage operations against AEOI workshops in the Shadabadarea”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran’s Misery Index Highlights Economic Hardship In Key Provinces | Iran International
A report by the Statistical Center of Iran reveals that the provinces of Kermanshah and Isfahan are facing the most economic challenges, topping the nation’s Misery Index. after five years of high inflation. The index, which combines inflation and unemployment rates, is widely used to assess economic distress. In Kermanshah, the Misery Index reached around 51%, while in Isfahan, it exceeded 49%, according to the report.
Oil Plunges 4% As Iran Supply Disruption Concerns Ease, Demand Outlook Weakens | Reuters
Oil prices tumbled more than 4% to a near two-week low on Tuesday due to a weaker demand outlook and after a media report said Israel is willing to not strike Iranian oil targets, easing fears of a supply disruption. Brent crude futures fell $3.51, or 4.5%, to $73.95 a barrel at 0911 GMT, their lowest since Oct. 2. West Texas Intermediate futures lost $3.48, or 4.7%, hitting $70.35 a barrel. Both benchmarks had settled about 2% lower on Monday. They are down about $5 so far this week, nearly wiping out cumulative gains made after investors became concerned Israel could strike Iran's oil facilities in retaliation for the latter's Oct. 1 missile attack.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the Biden administration he is willing to strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, according to two officials familiar with the matter, suggesting a more limited counterstrike aimed at preventing a full-scale war. In the two weeks since Iran’s latest missile barrage on Israel, its second direct attack in six months, the Middle East has braced for Israel’s promised response, fearing the two countries’ decades-long shadow war could explode into a head-on military confrontation. It comes at a politically fraught time for Washington, less than a month before the election; President Joe Biden has said publicly he would not support an Israeli strike on nuclear-related sites.
Iran Sees No Point In US Talks Amid Escalating Tensions With Israel | Iran International
Amid rising tensions with Israel, Iran has stated it sees no reason to continue indirect talks with the US at this time, citing the escalating Middle East crisis as a major obstacle to renewed negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made the statement during a visit to Oman, which had previously facilitated indirect talks with the US. "We do not see a basis for these talks until the current crisis is resolved. Afterward, we will decide whether to resume negotiations and in what form they should continue," Araghchi said. Iran’s latest declaration comes as the state and country brace for an anticipated counter-retaliation from Israel following a missile barrage earlier this month.
CHINA & IRAN
China Urges Caution In Israel-Iran Tensions, Calls For Ceasefire | Reuters
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on all parties involved in tensions between Israel and Iran on Monday to exercise caution and avoid escalating the situation. In a phone conversation with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, Wang also urged Israel to ensure the safety of personnel of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), a foreign ministry statement said. He also reiterated Beijing's position on the Gaza conflict, calling for an immediate, complete and permanent ceasefire.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iranian FM Meets Senior Houthi Leader Ahead Of Expected Strike By Israel | The Times Of Israel
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met in Muscat on Monday with Mohammed Abdelsalam, a senior official from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, according to his office. The Iranian foreign ministry released pictures of their talks during Araghchi’s visit to the Omani capital, the latest in a series of diplomatic trips in the region after Iran attacked Israel on October 1 with some 200 ballistic missiles and Israel vowed to respond. Tehran said its attack was a retaliation for Israel’s killing of Iranian-backed terror leaders in the region — head of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard general Abbas Nilforoushan, also in Beirut, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the latter.
IRAQ & IRAN
Drones From Iran-Backed Iraqi Group Intercepted Near Golan: Monitor | Rudaw
Two Islamic Resistance in Iraq drones were intercepted by Israeli defense systems near the Golan Heights, a war monitor said on Monday, adding they entered Syrian airspace from Iraq. "The Israeli air defences intercepted two drones belonging to the 'Islamic Resistance in Iraq' over the villages of al-Shajarah, and al-Qusayr area in al-Yarmouk Basin..." the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported. The area near the Golan Heights, amid the protracted Israel-Gaza war, has become a regular attack vector against Israel for Iran-backed groups like the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Iran Plans To Deport Two Million ‘Undocumented’ Afghan Migrants | The Khaama Press
Iran’s chief of police, Ahmadreza Radan, announced that the country’s police are determined to deport two million “illegal” Afghan migrants by the end of this year. Radan made the statement on Sunday, October 13, during a ceremony in Mashhad, stating that arrests of “illegal” Afghan migrants in Iran have increased. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Radan added that since the announcement of the deportation plan, both the number of voluntary surrenders and the arrests of undocumented foreign nationals have risen.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
UK Sanctions Iranian Military Figures Following Attack On Israel | Reuters
Britain has imposed sanctions against Iranian individuals and organisations after Iran's attack on Israel on Oct. 1, Britain's Foreign Office said on Monday. The sanctions target senior figures in Iran's army, air force and organisations linked to Iran's ballistic and cruise missile development. "Despite repeated warnings, the dangerous actions of Iran and its proxies are driving further escalation in the Middle East," British Foreign Minister David Lammy said in a statement.
Iran Accused Of Using Gang Crime To Pursue Regime Opponents In Germany | The National
Iran has turned to gang criminals in Germany to help it pursue and threaten regime critics living abroad, a spy chief said on Monday. Thomas Haldenwang, the head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency, named Iran and Turkey as two of four countries, along with Russia and China, threatening the safety of their citizens abroad. He said "concrete threats" had been made against people living in Germany. Tehran has a particular interest in identifying and repressing people linked to the protests that erupted after a young woman's death in the custody of Iranian morality police, Mr Haldenwang said. About 80,000 people joined one demonstration in Berlin after the Mahsa Amini movement spread to Europe in 2022.