TOP STORIES
US Still Believes Iran Has Not Decided To Build A Nuclear Weapon, US Officials Say | Reuters
The United States still believes that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon despite Tehran's recent strategic setbacks, including Israel's killing of Hezbollah leaders and two largely unsuccessful attempts to attack Israel, two U.S. officials told Reuters. The comments from a senior Biden administration official and a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) added to public remarks earlier this week by CIA Director William Burns, who said the United States had not seen any evidence Iran's leader had reversed his 2003 decision to suspend the weaponization program.
Iranian President Says Israel, Backed By West, Is ‘Killing Innocent People’ | Reuters
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday that Israel should "stop killing innocent people", and that its actions in the Middle East were backed by the United States and the European Union. Pezeshkian was speaking to a Russian state TV reporter on the sidelines of an international meeting in Turkmenistan. Israel in recent weeks has sharply escalated its assault on Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, including by killing its top leaders, sending ground troops into southern Lebanon and bombing the capital Beirut. An Israeli strike late on Thursday in the heart of Beirut killed 22 people and injured more than 100, Lebanese authorities said. Israel says the operations in Lebanon aim to allow tens of thousands of its residents to return home after being forced to leave northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket fire over the past year.
Exclusive: Stop Israel From Bombing Iran's Oil Sites, Gulf States Urge US | Reuters
Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran's oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran's proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters. As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran and have conveyed this to Washington, the three sources close to government circles said.
UANI IN THE NEWS
For Many Iranians, Israel Is Not The Enemy | UANI Senior Advisor Saeid Golkar For Persuasion
Historically, Iran’s relationship with Israel has been complex and multifaceted. Before the 1979 Revolution, Iran under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi maintained relatively positive diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. The two countries cooperated on various initiatives, including intelligence sharing and arms deals, positioning themselves as pragmatic partners in the volatile Middle East. Pahlavi emphasized the Persian and Jewish relationship, based on the historical narrative that Cyrus the Great, the founder of the Persian Empire, is remembered for liberating the Jews from captivity in 539 BCE after conquering Babylon. He allowed them to return to Jerusalem and rebuild their temple, earning him a revered place in Jewish history as a compassionate and just ruler.
As Iran and Israel inch ever closer to a full-scale war, the Islamic Republic’s huge ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv on October 1 may come to be seen as a decisive turning point. After successive setbacks for Tehran, including Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was left with little choice but to respond. Now, the region is staring down an even bigger conflict. Although some kind of Iranian attack was inevitable, given how closely allied Hezbollah is to the Islamic Republic, Khamenei surprised many observers by taking one of the most extreme options. He could have used his network of proxies to launch an indirect attack against Israel or set off a wave of regional terrorism. Both are steps he has taken in the past. Instead, Khamenei chose to fire hundreds of projectiles at Israel’s second-largest city: one of the largest biggest ballistic missile attacks in history.
Is A Mossad Agent Lurking In Tehran’s War Machine? | The Sun
Was a central figure in Tehran’s war machine, or someone in his inner circle, a Mossad agent? That question raises panic at the Iranian capital, and is the stuff of region-wide rumors surrounding a Revolutionary Guards commander, Esmail Qaani, who has been out of the public eye since September 27. [...] Iranians are desperately scrambling to plug possible leaks that gave Israel precise intelligence to conduct pinpoint strikes against Hezbollah commanders. “There is a great deal of paranoia in the leadership in Iran right now, so I find the report in the Middle East Eye plausible,” the policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, Jason Brodsky, tells the Sun.
BBC Iranian Expert Who Ranted About ‘Chosen People’ Pictured In IRGC Uniform | The Jewish Chronicle
[…] Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran, told the JC: “Marandi is one of the Iranian regime’s main propagandists. He is the son of the supreme leader’s personal doctor, served in the IRGC – the regime’s terror arm which created Hezbollah – and was even an adviser to the nuclear team under former president and hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi. Despite this, Western outlets – like the BBC, Sky News and Channel 4 – frequently invite Marandi without disclosing his troubling CV to their audiences, referring to Marandi as simply an ‘Iranian academic’. For an outlet like the BBC, which claims to take impartiality very seriously, the failure to disclose Marandi’s deep affiliation with the regime is a major oversight.”
Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has not only caused a succession crisis for Hezbollah, but has also highlighted the problem of succession for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash earlier this year, Nasrallah’s assassination has scrambled the dynamics of the supreme leadership transition with an aging 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the helm, and is likely the reason his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a key figure in the Office of the Supreme Leader, has recently emerged from the shadows. Iran’s decision to attack Israel for the second time this year by launching a salvo of nearly 200 ballistic missiles on Oct. 1 was likely driven by fears over the stability of Khamenei’s regime. Without such a response, the Islamic Republic’s survival might have been at risk.
Israel, U.S. Coordinating Response To Iranian Attack | i24 News
The Gulf states' concerns that their oil facilities might come under Iranian fire are understandable in view of Washington's consistent unwillingness to use force to deter Iran,
UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky tells Benita Levin.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Attack A Liberian-Flagged Ship In The Red Sea | Associated Press
Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian-flagged chemical tanker on Thursday in the Red Sea, authorities said. The attack comes as the rebels continue to threaten ships moving through the Red Sea, a waterway that once saw $1 trillion in goods move through it a year, over the ongoing conflicts in the Mideast stemming from the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. The Olympic Spirit tanker in the Red Sea had been skirting the coast of East Africa when it found itself struck first by a projectile that damaged the vessel, but sparked no fire and caused no injuries, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Executes 12 On Eve Of Anti-Death Penalty Day On Top Of 500 This Year | Iran International
Iran has executed at least 531 people this year including twelve prisoners put to death on the eve of the International Day Against the Death Penalty, rights groups reported this week. The grim statistics highlight Iran's position as one of the top enforcers of capital punishment worldwide, despite growing global calls to halt executions and address human rights concerns. Of those executed so far this year, 18 were women and one was a juvenile offender, according to the Norway-based rights group Iran Human Rights (IHR).
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran Foreign Minister Reiterates Israel Retaliation Warning | Reuters
Tehran will not hesitate to take "stronger defensive actions" if Israel retaliates for last week's missile attack by Tehran, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday. Iran is "fully prepared to take stronger defensive actions, if necessary, in response to any further aggression, and will not hesitate to do so," Araqchi said in a letter to other foreign ministers, according to a ministry post on X. Israel has repeatedly said it will respond to Iran's missile attack on Oct. 1, launched in retaliation for Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza and the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran. Araqchi said in his letter that Iran’s missile attack on Israel had been in accordance with its right to self defence under international law and followed much restraint as it sought a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
ECONOMIC WARFARE
Middle East Conflict Creates A Volatile Moment For Oil Markets | The New York Times
The spiraling conflict between Israel and Iran has sent shock waves through the oil market, increasing prices as investors grapple with potential disruptions to the global oil supply. Oil prices have jumped since Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surpassed $81 a barrel in the days afterward, a gain of about 15 percent. It traded around $79 a barrel on Friday. Despite the growing apprehension among traders, prices are lower than they were as recently as July — and unusually subdued for a time of such geopolitical tension. “In a normal world, this would have gone skyrocketing,” Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said during a webinar on Wednesday.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Tehran Mayor Under Fire As Unresolved China Deal Stirs Controversy | Iran International
Tehran’s mayor, Alireza Zakani, has found himself back in the spotlight amid growing concerns surrounding a €2 billion deal for electric buses with China. Although this deal is not new, Zakani is facing renewed scrutiny from the General Inspection Organization of Iran (GIO), further intensifying tensions around his leadership and sparking debates over his handling of the city’s key challenges. Following a trip to China in January, Zakani announced to the Tehran City Council that he had signed several significant agreements, including a €1.67 billion contract to improve the city’s transportation system.
Official Behind Religious Repression Makes Comeback With Governorship | Iran International
Former judiciary top official Hossein Ali Amiri, notorious for the persecution of Jewish and Bahai'i communities, has been appointed as the new governor of Fars Province in southern Iran by order of new president Mahmoud Pezeshkian. The appointment and several others involving figures freighted with accusations of human rights abuses may belie Pezeshkian's campaign pledges to ease government repression. Journalist Noushabeh Amiri reacted on X, stating: “The notorious and anti-Semitic judge of Shiraz received his bonus and became the Fars governor. How nice that Pezeskian was elected!”
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iran’s president on Friday at a time when Tehran is supplying weapons for Moscow’s war in Ukraine and concerns are growing over escalating attacks between Israel and Iran and its militant allies. Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed the situation in the Middle East on the sidelines of an international forum in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, Russian state media said. Moscow and Tehran signed a $1.7 billion deal for Iran to export drones to Russia after Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, and the U.S. also believes it has transferred short-range ballistic missiles.
Airstrikes In Beirut Kill At Least 22 And Injure Over 100, Lebanon Says | The New York Times
Israeli airstrikes in a densely populated area of central Beirut on Thursday killed at least 22 people and wounded at least 117 others, Lebanese officials said, in what appeared to be the deadliest attack in the Lebanese capital in more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The strikes hit an area of Beirut where displaced residents had been sheltering after weeks of intense Israeli bombardments near the city. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the strikes. But it has been systematically targeting Hezbollah leaders and the group’s infrastructure.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran And Oman Hold Joint Naval And Land Military Exercises | The National
Oman and Iran held joint naval and land forces drills on Thursday, aiming to enhance combat preparedness of the neighbours who share a maritime border along the Gulf of Oman. The exercises come at a time when Iran is expecting what experts say could be a massive Israeli attack. Israel is expected to retaliate after an Iranian ballistic missile strike on October 1, involving 180 missiles, which damaged Nevatim, a strategically important Israeli air base. A counter attack now would likely involve air strikes. But it could also come from the sea, due to Israel's cruise missile carrying Dolphin Class submarines. Amid Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon, where Iran supports Hamas and Hezbollah, the two countries have increasingly attacked each other directly. Israel killed two senior Iranian generals at Iran's Damascus embassy on April 1, sparking the first round of direct Iranian strikes.