Iraq 

Iran-Backed Militia Conveys Intention To Resume Targeting Of U.S. Forces 

The Iran-backed Iraqi militias, which have conducted nearly 180 attacks against U.S. installations in Iraq and Syria since October 17, have not attacked since bilateral negotiations between Iraq and the U.S. on February 11, after a temporary pause in the negotiations due to the deadly Iran-backed Tower 22 attack in Jordan. The decrease could be a function of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani’s reported efforts to rein them in; it also indicates tactical restraint to advance Iran and the militias’ shared goal of evicting the U.S. military through the bilateral negotiations.  

Kataib Hezbollah (KH), Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba (HHN), and other members of the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq,’ who have led attacks against the U.S. in violation of Iraqi law and sovereignty, will drive future escalation. HHN’s secretary general on February 25 ominously warned, “the current calm and the cessation of attacks on the positions of the occupiers is only a temporary tactic to strengthen the situation. And there is a reorganization of forces and a surprise is coming.”  

Israel and the Palestinian Territories 

Rafah Offensive Looms As Hostage Talks Appear To Break Down Ahead Of Ramadan 

Senior Israeli commanders have presented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a two-pronged plan for the Rafah offensive. An offensive on Rafah will likely proceed regardless of the outcome of the hostage negotiations, as Israel has vowed to eliminate the terrorist group. The plan addresses how Israel will achieve its military objective of destroying the remaining four Hamas battalion in Rafah; and how civilians will be evacuated from designated combat areas. 

On February 28, Hamas officials rejected reports that the group had softened its position in the hostage negotiations, saying a hostage deal was not likely. If negotiations break down, a Rafah offensive could commence during the Muslim holiday of Ramadan, when religious tensions typically run high. Israeli officials have noted that Iran and Hezbollah view Ramadan as the beginning of the “second stage of October 7.” Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh called on Muslims to “fortify the Al-Aqsa [mosque] on the first day of Ramadan.” 

Ismail Haniyeh Convenes Hamas’ Exiled Leaders in Doha, Fearing Imminent Defeat 

Israel has made significant progress towards its war aims of dismantling Hamas and ensuring that the Palestinian terrorist group cannot again commit another atrocity against Israel. It has killed 12,000 Hamas fighters over the course of the war and removed thousands of others from the battlefield. Given the IDF’s rapid progress on the battlefield, Hamas’ exiled leaders convened in Doha to discuss ways of surviving the war. In Doha, a Hamas courier reportedly delivered a message from Yayha Sinwar, the Gaza-based Hamas leader, which said that he believed Hamas’ Al-Qassem Brigades were performing well and positioned to win the war. Anonymous sources said the attendants at the meeting believe international pressure against Israel will increase, which they hope will lead Israel to end military operations without achieving the objective. 

Hamas adjusted its tactics to focus on hit-and-run ambushes that require few fighters and therefore risk fewer casualties. Hamas fighters in groups of two or three have launched rocket propelled grenades at IDF troops and convoys, then retreat to the tunnels or razed buildings. Earlier in the war, Hamas was able to conduct larger-scale operations. However, now that its larger units have been degraded at both the mid and upper levels of command, it is unable to conduct attacks in a coordinated way. Furthermore, Hamas has not been able to replace its senior commanders, adding to the difficulty of coordinating attacks. 

Lebanon and Hezbollah 

Sources Say IRGC-Quds Force Commander Met With Hezbollah’s Secretary-General 

IRGC-Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani reportedly visited Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, after the latter called for the meeting in order to discuss a plan to attack Israel. Specifically, Nasrallah sought Qaani’s authorization for “complete freedom in how he intends to attack,” according to one Iranian source. Qaani was said to have greenlit Nasrallah’s request in the event that Israel carries out an offensive on Rafah.  

Israel Strikes Hezbollah’s Bekaa Valley Stronghold For The First Time Since The War In Gaza

Israel’s political leadership is committed to returning 200,000 internally displaced Israeli citizens, who evacuated their homes in northern Israel because of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket attacks. Diplomatic efforts spearheaded by the Biden administration have been underway to reach a deal that would allow Hezbollah to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon, a proposition which may not comport with Israel’s threat assessment of Hezbollah, which is more capable than Hamas of conducting an attack against Israel. The Lebanese government purportedly called on Hezbollah to pull back behind the Litani River, as mandated by United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701. Nevertheless, given that Hezbollah has said it will continue fighting Israel in solidarity with Hamas, such a diplomatic resolution remains unlikely.

On February 24, Hezbollah fired rockets towards Kiryat Shmona and the surrounding areas, most of which have been evacuated of civilians. Israel’s air defense systems intercepted several of the incoming projectiles, and an Israeli jet downed a drone headed towards Israel. Israel in turn has escalated, striking Hezbollah targets deeper into Lebanese territory and continuing with its airstrikes against Hezbollah’s leadership. On February 26, Israel conducted strikes in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, a Hezbollah stronghold 60 miles from the Israel’s northern border, against Hezbollah’s air defenses after Israel blamed Hezbollah for shooting down an Israeli drone earlier that day. The IDF also carried out a targeted drone strike that assassinated senior Hezbollah commander Hassan Hussein Salami, as he was traveling in his car in southern Lebanon. He held a rank equivalent to brigade commander and was involved in the recent missile attacks on Kiryat Shmona and an IDF base.

Syria 

Israel Conducts Multiple Strikes To Counter Iranian Weapon Shipments Through Syria 

Iran has accelerated its weapons shipments to Hezbollah through Iraq and Syria to enable the group to continue to launch cross-border attacks against Israel and possibly prepare it for all-out war. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote a letter to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), arguing that the shipments of air defense system components, drones, and missiles violate several UNSC Resolutions. 

Israel has taken self-defense measures to thwart these Lebanon-bound shipments, including by striking targets in Syria this week. An apparent Israeli strike caused a massive explosion and damage to a site near Damascus, on February 28. According to the pro-Iran media outlet Al-Maydeen, the strikes targeted the Sayeda Zainab neighborhood, an IRGC and Hezbollah stronghold known to have underground fortifications and an Islamic shrine. On March 1, Reza Zarei, an IRGC-Navy member serving as an advisor in Syria with the Quds Force, was killed along with two members of Hezbollah, in an Israeli airstrike.