Tanker Tracking

This week it was reported that the Biden administration is pressing China to reduce its Iran oil imports. It’s more of a gentle lean. “We have been approaching this diplomatically,” said the unnamed official, because this was, in their view, “a more effective path forward” to deal with the Iran issue.

In August, Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced an end to its fuel subsidies, which have drained the bank’s reserves since the country began descending into a financial crisis. The move, which was expected to cause already high fuel prices to quadruple, plunged Lebanon further into collapse.

For the month of July, UANI estimates Iran’s exports of crude oil and gas condensates at 843,233 barrels of oil per day (bpd), with China again the single biggest importer and “destinations unknown” still accounting for more than half of the total. However, as vessel transponders are turned back on and destinations are updated, UANI’s export figures are revised accordingly.

As part of our campaign to disrupt Tehran’s oil sales revenue, UANI has launched a new resource, the Iran Tanker Tracker. This comprehensively tracks exports of Iranian oil through our ship-tracking methodology dating back to April 2018.  In addition to our monthly Iran Tanker Tracking Blogs, the new resource provides a comparison of where Iran’s oil exports were pre-JCPOA, during the JCPOA, and post-JCPOA.  

Israel and Iran have been engaged in a low-intensity shadow war for over a decade. This clandestine clash has passed through multiple phases. Initially, it was centered on Israel’s attempts to derail Iran’s nuclear program. In 2013, with the entry of Iran and its proxy forces into the Syrian Civil War, Israel’s goal broadened to prevent Tehran’s entrenchment in yet another country on its northern border. The Israelis seemingly expanded to striking Iranian shipping assets shortly after that.

Preliminary data suggests that Iran’s exports of crude oil and gas condensates dropped from 1.2 million to 900,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in May.  Maritime entities appear to have played their part. In the wake of UANI’s Stop the Hop 2.0 blog on April 16, which highlighted a fleet of 100+ suspect tankers, numerous flag, insurance and classification authorities have stepped up and taken action on many of these identified vessels.

It appears that many classification societies – which certify a vessel’s seaworthiness – are starting to heed last year’s official guidance on maritime malpractice and sanctions.

In April, Iran exported almost 500,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) to China. However, our revised figures for the previous month show it managed to export almost 1 million bpd. What accounts for this steep 50% drop? The answer is not due to any reduction in Beijing’s appetite for Iranian crude - far from it. In large measure, the explanation is logistics.

According to filings by the United States Government in a federal court proceeding pending in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, the United States seized Iranian petroleum found on board the Liberian-flagged tanker, M/T ACHILLEAS in February 2021.   According to a Verified Complaint for Forfeiture In Rem filed in Civil Action No.  21-cv-305, U.S.

The burgeoning China-Iran oil trade was given another shot in the arm in March with the launch of a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” deal between the two countries, worth $400 billion over 25 years.  Iran gets Chinese investment, and in return, China gets Iranian oil.  This is a huge boon to Iran in particular, as it ensures a long-term buyer for its most lucrative export while sidestepping the most important U.S. sanctions for the next quarter-century.