Lebanon’s Governmental Impasse

Lebanon once again finds itself without a functioning government. Saad Hariri’s January 2019 cabinet – painstakingly formed 10 months after the country’s last parliamentary elections – resigned on October 29, and the prospect for a new government seems increasingly distant. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy is rapidly failing, and foreign donors have dismissed the possibility of providing Beirut with any aid until it forms a new government.

In a Paris meeting this past Wednesday – led by France and the United Nations – Lebanon’s traditional partners, including the United States, expressed their impatience with the country. Amidst the country’s worst financial crisis in decades – exacerbated by its two-month-long countrywide uprising – the message from Paris was clear: Lebanon would receive no aid until it met benchmarks for reform of its economy. In the interim, the international community would only provide technical advice, but no funds. “There’s no aid package; there is no bailout,” one U.S. official said. “Lebanon is not being saved from its financial mess.” The official refused to even guarantee supplying Lebanon with humanitarian aid.

But Lebanon’s government formation process has once again stalled, seemingly indefinitely. This time, the usual infighting among Lebanon’s political parties is further complicated by the impasse between the political class as a whole and protesters demanding reforms.

The political parties continue to refuse to satisfy the protesters’ demands, insisting on forming a mixed technocratic-political government instead of the purely technocratic one demanded by the street. They’ve so far offered two candidates for prime minister – Mohammad al-Safadi and Samir al-Khatib – who have both been angrily rejected by protesters, forcing them to withdraw.

But the ruling parties’ consensus on a candidate has also seemingly broken down. Hariri has been thrust back to the forefront – almost by default – due to Safadi’s and Khatib’s withdrawal. However, in a statement on Thursday, caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil said his Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) – parliament’s largest bloc – refused to sit in a government headed by Hariri, up to now the preferred candidate of FPM’s allies, Hezbollah and Amal.

It seems increasingly likely that ultimately no candidate will be chosen during Lebanon’s parliamentary consultations on Monday. In the off-chance the country’s political powers agree to nominate a figure – Hariri or otherwise – that choice is also unlikely to satisfy the street’s anger. In either case, Lebanon’s latest political deadlock is far from over.

David Daoud is a research analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).