A New and Aspiring Sunni Leadership in Lebanon

As the fears of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah dominate international attention regarding Lebanon, events in the domestic political arena reflect the deep vulnerability that has led to Hezbollah's ability to use Lebanon's soil as a platform to attack Israel as part of Iran's regional vision. 

The Lebanese political system allocates political power based on the sectarian structure of the country.  The president, officially the head of state, is reserved for Christians, the prime minister is the top position reserved for the Sunnis, and the speaker of parliament is Shiite. 

The fact that for the past two years, Lebanon has had no president, and the government is headed by an interim and politically weak Sunni politician means Christian and Sunni political influences are severely diminished. This dynamic is critical as Shiite political power – manifested by the close alliance between Hezbollah and Amal – is at its apex. 

The outcome of this unchecked political influence has been devastating, as months of international efforts to assist Lebanon in electing a new Christian president have been foiled by the Shiite control over the parliament.  There is no hope for establishing a new government reflecting the 2022 election results in which Hezbollah and its allies lost their political majority. 

The new Sunni player is attempting to reshape the political landscape out of these struggles.  Bahaa al-Hariri, the eldest son of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who was assassinated by Hezbollah in 2005, and the brother of former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, who quit political life after years of failing to contain Hezbollah, arrived a few weeks ago in Lebanon, declaring his commitment “to revive his father’s legacy.” 

Living for years outside of Lebanon and allowing his younger brother to walk in their father's footsteps, Bahaa al-Hariri's current move is surprising. It reflects the radical change in his apolitical persona.  Upon landing in Lebanon, Bahaa criticized the corrupted political elites and claimed his brother’s political engagement with Hezbollah led to the Sunni community’s political weakness. 

Saad al-Hariri's decision to quit political life two years ago led to the Future Movement, which is identified with the Hariri family, not to participate in the 2022 election for the first time since it was established 15 years earlier.  The result was the fragmentation of the Sunni political power, and it appears Bahaa al-Hariri is trying to resurrect the sect under his leadership using his father's legacy, commonly referred to in Lebanon as “political Harirism.”

Being a traditionally harsh critic of Hezbollah and having close ties to the Saudis, many people in Lebanon suspect Bahaa al-Hariri's move originated in Riyadh as part of a Saudi attempt to curb Hezbollah. 

Whether the reason for Bahaa al-Hariri's new interest in the Lebanese political arena is personal or part of a wider regional power struggle, his effort to reunite the Sunni sect under the Hariri family banner will not be easy.  Any attempt to consolidate the Sunni political power, especially under an anti-Hezbollah charter, will be seen negatively by Hezbollah.  By now, Al-Akhbar newspaper, known to be close to Hezbollah, has already cast skepticism over the ploy, pointing to its weaknesses.  Hezbollah will surely adopt countermeasures if the move is seen as a risk to its equities. 

At the same time, Bahaa al-Hariri's surprise visit to Lebanon might not be seen favorably by another Sunni politician.  The trip seemed to be uncoordinated with the local Future Movement officials and was seen as a threat to their positions.  Concurrently, Bahaa al-Hariri's move will most likely provoke opposition from other Sunni politicians who see his return as challenging their influence after they were “left to their fate” and abandoned in the last elections.  The current attempt comes two years after Bahaa al-Hariri tried and failed to gain political influence ahead of the 2022 elections and is no doubt a source of skepticism and suspicion among the Sunni population. 

Time will tell whether the 2024 attempt of Bahaa al-Hariri to revive Sunni political fortunes and “Harirism” will succeed.  In any case, those who wish to see a stable and reformed Lebanon state should by now understand that the continuation of the decentralized Sunni political bloc, which resulted from Saad Hariri’s decision to withdraw from political life and boycott by the 2022 elections, only plays into the hands of Hezbollah. 

Under the Lebanese sectarian-based system, the lack of political coherence among the Sunni and the Christian sects serves as a main source of power for Hezbollah's untamed political influence.  Any attempt to reform the country should start with rebalancing the sectarian power-sharing system – and it seems this is exactly what Bahaa al-Hariri is trying to do. 

Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon.  He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel’s Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron