Update on NITC Tankers – March 2020

              Syrian oil imports from Iran continues to be a significant hole in the U.S. sanctions wall - and the hole certainly got bigger in March. According to data from Tankertrackers.com, Iran exported an average of 168,650 bpd in the first 21 days of March 2020. This represents a fivefold increase from just 34,000 bpd in February.  Of all observable deliveries, Syrian imports therefore represented about one-half of Iran’s total oil exports during the month. In total, Bloomberg reports an observed 344,000 bpd in Iranian oil exports – also a five-month high.  

However, March may prove to be an anomalous month for Iranian oil exports given the unique situation of the Corona Virus contagion that has shocked world demand and a Russia-Saudi spat that led to both countries cranking up the spigots. These factors have caused a massive plunge in oil prices across the board since early March. Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the OPEC basket prices all dropped by 60%. Even more dramatically, Iran Heavy has plummeted 70%. Today, Iran Heavy is trading at $13 per barrel, compared to $44 per barrel at the start of March (which was already selling at a discount due to sanctions risks). Therefore, despite the big increase in export volume, the price drop will have wiped out any revenue gains accruing to the regime.

In March, UANI tracked several Syria-bound tankers, including backlisted vessels, noticing lengthier periods of “going dark” when switching off their AIS transponders that allow satellites to track vessels. These tankers leave the Persian Gulf loaded with Iranian crude oil bound for the Syrian Baniyas refinery. Journeys of note this month include:

• SILVIA I – Appeared in the Red Sea on February 29, 2020 heading toward the Suez Canal with a draft at 15.5, indicating the vessel was full. Silvia I disappeared in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea on March 2, 2020, reappearing off the coast of Port Said on March 9, 2020 with a draft at 9 indicated the vessel was empty. We believe the vessel discharged at Baniyas Refinery, Syria between March 2 and March 9. Silvia I returned to Khor Fakkan Anchorage, UAE on March 20, 2020.

(Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Mapbox, OpenStreetMap)

• TOUR 2 – Appeared in the Red Sea on March 22, 2020 heading toward the Suez Canal with a draft at 16, indicating the vessel was full. After exiting the Suez Canal on March 24, 2020, Tour 2 turned its AIS off. Although Tour 2 has not yet reappeared based on its history, we will count this a delivery to Baniyas, Syria in March 2020.

(Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Mapbox, OpenStreetMap)

• ROMINA – Appeared in the Red Sea on March 18, 2020 heading toward the Suez Canal although its draft was only reported to be at 9. We usually would have considered this tanker to be empty, however, TankerTrackers.com confirmed Romina engaged in a ship to ship (STS) transfer at the Baniyas Anchorage with a domestic Handymax vessel and delivered the rest to the SBM delivery point for the Baniyas refinery.

(Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Mapbox, OpenStreetMap)

              While March and the coming months may prove to be anomalies for Iranian oil exports when set against the long-term backdrop, it is nonetheless a worrying sign that Iran clearly still has the capacity to export large volumes using its clandestine methods. If and when prices rise, the regime stands to benefit hugely -- the U.S. should do all in its power right now to press its allies to prevent Iranian oil deliveries to Assad.