The Past Week in Lebanon – A Brief of a Country Tangled in Multiple Crises

The main event that caught Lebanon’s attention last week was the assassination attributed to Israel of  Saleh Al-Arouri, the deputy politburo head of Hamas. The pinpoint aerial attack in the center of Dahiya, a Hezbollah “safe haven” in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, was the first of its kind since the 2006 Lebanon War. It represented an Israeli willingness to target Hamas’ leaders, even at the price of challenging the known “rules of engagement” established over the years with Hezbollah, and the risk of further escalating the already dangerous exchanges of fire with the organization.

The responses of the different Lebanese political actors to the attack were a reminder of the deep ideological disagreements regarding the Lebanese arena’s role in regional conflicts. As Hezbollah’s terror activities on Lebanon’s soil are done while ignoring the formal state institutions and represent a continuous breach of the country’s sovereignty, they are a source of constant internal political debate regarding Hezbollah’s arm and the risk it poses to Lebanon's security.

Hassan Nasrallah promised, in two separate televised speeches, that the attack would not go unanswered, but as usual, he was cautious enough not to obligate himself to any specific timeframe or modus operandi. As Nasrallah is proudly portraying his organization as the “protector of Lebanon” from Israeli aggression, he is fully aware that an uncalculated response on his behalf could ignite a full-scale war that will lead to massive destruction in Lebanon—a scenario he wishes to avoid. Hezbollah's rocket salvo on the Air Force radar base in northern Israel this weekend proved this point. It attacked a military target but caused little damage and no casualties. In response, Israel on Monday engaged in a targeted killing of a Hezbollah commander in the elite Radwan Unit in the south Jawad Al-Tawil. Lebanese security sources described the strike to Reuters as “a very painful strike” and that “things will flare up now.”

Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister of the Lebanese government for more than two years now, who enjoys Hezbollah's support, condemned the Israeli attack on Arouri as a “breach of Lebanon sovereignty.” Shortly after his statement, the Lebanese government filed a complaint with the United Nations against Israel. The government's actions served Hezbollah’s interests as they strengthened the organization’s narrative, according to which Hezbollah protects Lebanon from Israeli aggression. The formal Lebanese government chose to ignore, as it has done for years, the fact that its territory is used as a staging ground for terror activity against a neighboring country.

At the same time, members of the parties opposed to Hezbollah echoed Mikati’s condemnation of Israel. Still, they criticized the fact that Hamas was able to use Lebanon as an operating ground. Those leaders have also warned that Hezbollah’s unilateral decisions regarding the war in Gaza and the fighting against Israel are risking Lebanon's security and are being made in the service of Iranian interests, which dictate Hezbollah’s actions. Their voices seem to have little influence on Hezbollah’s calculations and actions.

By now, both Hezbollah and Israel are on extremely high alert, and the tensions along the border are at their highest point since Hezbollah ignited the front on October 8 as part of its attempt to show solidarity with Hamas’ brutal terror attack on southern Israel on October 7.

The international community’s efforts to defuse the situation seem to be futile up to now, as Hezbollah bluntly rejects any call for the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War and called for the expulsion of Hezbollah’s military presence from southern Lebanon. Senior officials from the European Union, France, and the United States who visited Beirut in recent weeks were unable to reach an understanding with their Lebanese counterparts on the issue.

Furthermore, media reports suggest that Hezbollah indicated it will adhere to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 only if the organization is allowed to dictate the identity of the next president of the country. This position has been vacant for over a year and a half due to deep political disagreements. This demand of Hezbollah was met with complete refusal by the leading Christian political parties and the Maronite patriarchy, as the presidency is the top Christian position in the Lebanese government, and it holds great influence over security and foreign affairs issues. It appears that the top Christian leadership is afraid that the international community’s wish to avoid a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah will push it to accept Hezbollah's presidential demand.

Such a compromise will prove once again that Hezbollah’s rogue use of violence is a winning strategy for gaining political power in Lebanon. This was the case in the 2008 Doha agreement, which ended Hezbollah’s de facto military coup in Beirut, by entitling it to a “veto right” over the government’s decisions.

On a different note, but not disconnected from the wider political struggle in the country, the U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced last week the dissolution of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), established in 2009 to investigate the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minster Rafik Hariri. The tribunal was able to convict lower-level Hezbollah members responsible for the attack but fell short of implicating the organization’s leadership. 

The personal nature of the ruling, and the fact that Lebanon extradited none of the Hezbollah members, prevented a major political crisis in the country and allowed Hezbollah’s leadership to further the use of political violence against its rivals. This cemented its overwhelming political hegemony and status as the “kingmaker” of any significant position in the Lebanese governance and administrative systems.

Dror Doron is a research fellow at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon. He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel’s Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.