The Averted War and Risks Ahead

Over a week has passed since Hezbollah’s response to the Israeli targeted killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization’s top military commander. As the dust settles down, there are several takeaways from the event that brought Israel and Hezbollah to the closest point of an all-out war since the October 7 massacre by Hamas. 

The few hundred rockets (300 hundred according to Hezbollah and 200 according to Israel) and several attack drones that Hezbollah launched after an Israeli strike preempted its original plan did not cause any significant damage as they were intercepted by the Israeli air defense systems. Most media outlets claimed Hezbollah showed restraint and suggested that it responded calculatedly to prevent further escalation. 

However, this is not true. Had the preemptive strike, which, according to Israel, had foiled most of the planned attack, not taken place, the outcome of the events could have been dramatically different. Hezbollah planned to simultaneously launch hundreds of short-range rockets at northern Israel, along with medium-range precision-guided missiles and tens of attack drones aimed at military targets in the highly populated area of central Israel. It is hard to imagine that Israel could have contained it and not retaliated in a massive counterattack if Hezbollah had been victorious in carrying out such a surprise attack. 

As it is unlikely that Hezbollah assumed Israel would foil its planned attack, the critical question that needs to be asked is what were Hezbollah’s calculations that led it to try and carry out such a plot? This question holds great importance as the fire exchange between Israel and Hezbollah is still ongoing daily, and both sides are constantly challenging each other’s red lines. 

Hezbollah's final decision on any significant military move is from Hassan Nasrallah, the organization’s general secretary. Nasrallah has been trying for months to maintain the level of fighting beneath the threshold of what would trigger a full-scale war. Reports quoting Israeli military sources reveal that Nasrallah personally instructed his forces to moderate the attack plan. 

However, Nasrallah’s approval of the unprecedented attack and his willingness to take the risk of further escalation indicates that his traditional risk aversion is weakening as the fighting with Israel continues. It appears that Nasrallah perceives the repeated Israeli threats of an all-out war as unreliable, especially as the American administration voices firm objection to such a development. 

Nasrallah’s self-assurance and his willingness to challenge Israel also increased due to the limited Israeli response and the total lack of American response to the unprecedented Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel in April after Tehran ignored President Biden’s warnings not to do so. 

At the same time, Nasrallah’s ability to fully control the escalation dynamic with Israel has weakened as he has committed himself to attack Israel as long as the war in Gaza continues. He has also been trying to deter Israel by establishing an “equation of responses.” Since the war in Gaza does not seem to be nearing an end soon and with Israel constantly raising the bar of its attacks in Lebanon, hoping to force Hezbollah to stop its fire, Nasrallah finds himself responding to events over which he has limited influence. 

It is also important to remember that the primary cause of this chain of events was Hezbollah’s heavy rocketing of the Druze village of Majdal Shams, which caused the death of 12 children. The tragic incident left Israel's decision-makers little choice but to retaliate, and the Shukr assassination led Nasrallah to the same position. 

With daily skirmishes along the border between Israel and Lebanon accruing for months, the chances are increasing that a miscalculation could push the dynamic of “controlled escalation” into a new phase of the conflict. As each round of escalation produces a new “red line” and becomes the starting point for the next one, slowly pushing the two sides to take riskier actions, the chances of an all-out war are rising. 

 Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon.  He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel’s Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.