Regional Destabilization

Lebanon Clarifies Dissociation, Declaring No Neutrality on Israel

By David Daoud

On April 9, at 3:25 AM, four Israel Air Force (IAF) jets entered Lebanese airs

1. Historical Snapshot Since the Last Elections

On Friday, Lebanon will head to Paris for yet another international donor conference, seeking $6-7 billion in credit facilities and funds.

Tensions flared February 10 after an Iranian drone violated Israeli airspace and one of the IAF’s F-16 jets that destroyed the command trailer from which it was launched was shot down by Syrian air defenses. For Israelis, whose air force has specialized in flawless and daring missions as far away as Iraq and Tunisia and whose last aerial combat loss was in 1982, the downing of the F-16 came as a shock. However, while a public relations boon to Hezbollah, this incident is actually relatively minor and does not augur a new phase in the war between the Jewish state and Iran.

Lebanese Dissociation

When Saad Hariri resigned his post as prime minister of Lebanon last week, the move surprised even his closest associates. The normally soft-spoken premier lashed out at Iran and Hezbollah, accusing them of plotting his assassination, and vowing that the region’s reawakened Arabs would “cut off” Tehran’s arms. The unusual resignation came amid internal upheavals within Saudi Arabia and escalating Saudi-Iranian tensions over Lebanon and Yemen, fueling speculation that all were somehow related.

In mid-September, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah declared victory in the Syrian Civil War, dismissing any continued fighting as “scattered battles.” Victory in Syria has long been considered a necessary prerequisite for the group initiating another war with Israel. However, Nasrallah’s declaration of triumph is still premature.

On September 26, Iran’s Research Institute of Petroleum, a governmental research institute affiliated with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), announced that Iran is planning to build an oil refinery in Syria’s western city of Homs once the civil war has ended as part of a consortium involving Iranian, Syrian, and Venezuelan companies.